Incident: Middle Fork
Released: 6/29/2007
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Date: June 29, 2007
Contact: Douglas Dodge Phone: 406-632-4391
(cell) 799-3612
Fire Name: Middle Fork Fire Start: June 21, 2007
Cause: Lightning Total Acres: 1,146 acres
Percent Containment: 35% Percent Control: 0%
Fire History: The Middle Fork Fire started on June 21, 2007 and was caused by a lightning storm that traveled through the area on the evening of June 20th. The fire is located just east of the Three Mile Fence, and north of the Middle Fork Road in the Middle Fork Judith Wilderness Study Area. Fire crews have put in some sort of line around most of the fire. However the entire perimeter remains hot, even where not obvious to the eye. Higher temperatures and lower relative humidity levels are not helping suppression efforts. Fire behavior today, while a bit more active than yesterday, was characterized by occasional torching of trees within the perimeter and some creeping and smoldering along the perimeter itself.
Today's Operations: Crews continued to work on the perimeter of the fire. There were 10 person crews on the west, east and south divisions and a 25 person crew on the north. The crew along the south perimeter was mopping up using a hose lay, drafting from the river.
Tomorrow's Operations: Crews will continue as today.
Personnel on Fire: There will be approximately 65 persons on the fire, including two Type 2 crews (20 persons), two helicopter modules, and various other support personnel.
Equipment on Fire: Two Type 3 (light) helicopters.
Closures: Closures remain the same.
The Judith Ranger District of the Lewis and Clark National Forest has temporarily closed the Woodchopper Trail, #444, from Suicide Flats to Yogo Peak; the Main Middle Fork Trail, #825, from Suicide Flats to the private land; and the Morris Creek Trail, #435, from the trailhead to the intersection with the Woodchopper Trail. Other closures include Forest Road #6527, #6529, #6530, #6531. For more detailed information on emergency trail closure please call the Judith Ranger District Office at 406-566-2292.
Fire Weather: Temperatures were in the upper 80's today with relative humidity dropping to 9 percent. We expect possibly severe thunderstorms this evening with high winds and possibly hail. A cold front is predicted to move through the area bringing high winds, but lower temperatures on Saturday and higher relative humidity.
Fire Analysis and Long Range Plan: Due to topography, weather and fuel conditions, the fire is anticipated to continue to burn well into the summer. A long range planning team has put together a plan to deal with the fire through the summer. The team's initial analysis showed a 90% probability that the fire would have burned off of the National Forest onto private lands if there had been no actions taken. With the current situation, there is a good probability that the fire will not expand beyond its present size. The long range plan has several recommendations, among which is to take aggressive action to cool down any flare up that may occur due to the high temperatures and low humidity. Additionally, there are several action points that have been identified with recommended management actions to occur should the fire burn to or across those points and depending upon fire behavior at that time.
Using the suppression tactics to date has had several immediate benefits. The first of which was a reduced risk to fire suppression crews by reducing their exposure to the steep topography during the high intensity burning last Friday. A second benefit of not throwing every available resource at the fire is that resources were available to send to the new fire near West Yellowstone. Had those resources been committed to the Middle Fork Fire, it would have been more difficult to respond as rapidly as we did. A third benefit has been that the actual suppression costs are much lower than costs have been on similar fires the past few years. Typical costs of suppressing a fire of this size, in this topography and in these fuel types has cost in the range of $4 million, primarily due to the costs of aerial attack and support. The costs for suppression as of today total about $165,000. Daily costs are running about $30,000 instead of $2-400,000 per day as is typical. With the long range plan in place, estimated costs - should the management actions be necessary - are expected to total about $2 million. In this case we are fortunate that there are no immediate threats to private lands or other valuable resources.
Special Remarks: Remember fireworks are prohibited on the National Forest System lands. As you and your family are out recreating and/or camping do not leave any campfires unattended. When leaving your campsite remember to use your shovel and bucket to completely put out your campfire.
