9-25 Fire Weather Forecast
Incident: Condon Mountain Fire Wildfire
INCIDENT Weather Forecast
FORECAST NO: 03 A NAME OF FIRE: Condon Mtn PREDICTION FOR: SHIFT: Day and Night
SHIFT DATE: 09/25/14 SIGNED:
TIME AND DATE: 0700-2100 and 1730-0730 MONDAY 09/25-26/12
Incident Meteorologist David Lipson FORECAST ISSUED: 1900
WEATHER DISCUSSION: Clouds ahead of an approaching weak low pressure center moved in from the west and kept temperatures from cooling off to much this morning. As a result, the inversion was not as strong as originally anticipated Therefore smoke is predicted to disperse by 12 noon today. As the low tracks across the fire area this afternoon and evening, a few spotty light showers or sprinkles may occur over the fire but more than likely, most of the rain showers will occur to the north and south of the fire. Expect some lingering clouds for the rest of Wednesday. Thursday will feature terrain driven winds. On Friday, westerly winds aloft will surface to the ground and become channeled from the northwest across much of the fire area. These winds will increase by Sunday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected on exposed northwest aspects Sunday night through Monday night. The strongest winds appear to be slated for Monday night where isolated 40 mph gusts are possible. A strong cold front will push colder air into the area Tuesday through Wednesday. Precipitation will likely break out by Wednesday of next week with the potential snow line expected to range from 3500 to 5500 feet.
WEATHER... Smoke will be around this morning and should dissipate between 1200. Otherwise partly sunny.
TEMPERATURES: 75 at 3500 ft in the valley and 67 at 7000 feet.
HUMIDITY: 30 to 35 percent at 3500 feet and 35 to 40 percent at 7000 feet.
20 FT WINDS:
RIDGE TOP WINDS - Northeast 3 to 6 mph, then southwest 5 to 10 mph after 1100.
MID SLOPE - Downslope 2 to 4 mph until 0900. Then upslope 4 to 8 mph.
VALLEY - Southeast 3 to 5 mph until 0900. Then northwest 3 to 6 mph increasing to 5 to 15 mph by 1400.
HAINES INDEX: 3.
STABILITY/INVERSION: 200 to 400 feet msl lifting to 8000 feet msl by 1300.
WEATHER: Increasing clouds. Possible isolated showers or sprinkles after 0300.
TEMPERATURES: 45 in the valleys and 56 in the thermal belt.
HUMIDITY: 65 to 70 percent in the valleys and 35 to 40 percent on the ridges.
20 FT WINDS:
RIDGETOP -Northeast 3 to 6 mph.
MID SLOPE - Downslope 2 to 4 mph.
VALLEY - Southeast 2 to 4 mph.
HAINES INDEX: 3.
STABILITY/INVERSION: 100 to 200 feet in the valleys and 500 feet on the ridges..
OUTLOOK FOR Wednesday: Possible isolated light showers or sprinkles early in the morning. A Haines index of 3. Highs 65 to 75. Near steady relative humidity on the ridges. Minimum relative humidity of 35 to 40 percent.
Extended Forecast: Thursday expect terrain driven winds. Friday through Sunday night gradually increasing northwest winds. Significant northwest winds continuing through Monday night. Some gusts of 35 to 40 mph expected on the higher exposed northwest aspects. Minimum relative humidity during the wind event 25 to 30 percent. Much colder Tuesday through Wednesday with a good chance of rain except snow above 3500 to 5500 feet.