9-24 Fire Weather Forecast
Incident: Condon Mountain Fire Wildfire
Released: 9/24/2012
INCIDENT Weather Forecast
FORECAST NO: 02 A NAME OF FIRE: Condon Mtn PREDICTION FOR: SHIFT: Day and Night
SHIFT DATE: 09/24/14 SIGNED:
TIME AND DATE: 0700-2100 and 1730-0730 MONDAY 09/24-25/12
Incident Meteorologist David Lipson FORECAST ISSUED: 2000
09/23/12
WEATHER DISCUSSION: A low pressure center will continue to track southeast to our south across the Great Basin today. Only some lingering clouds can be expected from this weather system early this morning, especially to the south. With the clouds dissipating later this morning, the inversion should lift between 1330 and 1400 today along with smoke dispersal. A stronger low pressure center will track east right across northwest Montana Tuesday and will linger into Wednesday since this low pressure center will be cut off from the main belt of the jet stream. Scattered showers will result, especially on Wednesday along with increasing relative humidity. Relatively benign weather is expected Thursday although some clouds will linger Thursday behind the exiting low pressure system. An increasing westerly gradient wind will sag south across northwest Montana from Canada Friday with increasing channeled northwest surface winds possible this weekend.
TODAY...
WEATHER... Smoke will be around this morning and should dissipate between 1130 and 1230. Otherwise partly cloudy with thicker clouds just to the south. Decreasing clouds by noon.
TEMPERATURES: 74 at 3500 ft in the valley, 75 at 5000 feet and 70 at 7000 feet.
HUMIDITY: 26 to 27 percent.
20 FT WINDS:
RIDGE TOP WINDS - Northeast 3 to 6 mph, then south southwest 10 to 15 mph after 1100.
MID SLOPE - Downslope 2 to 4 mph until 0900. Then upslope 4 to 8 mph.
VALLEY - Southeast 3 to 5 mph until 0900. Then northwest 3 to 6 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph by 1200.
HAINES INDEX: 3.
STABILITY/INVERSION: 200 to 400 feet msl lifting to 10000 feet msl by 1300.
TONIGHT....
WEATHER: Increasing clouds.
TEMPERATURES: 45 in the valleys and 56 in the thermal belt.
HUMIDITY: 65 to 70 percent in the valleys and 35 to 40 percent on the ridges.
20 FT WINDS:
RIDGETOP -Northeast 3 to 6 mph.
MID SLOPE - Downslope 2 to 4 mph.
VALLEY - Southeast 2 to 4 mph.
HAINES INDEX: 3.
STABILITY/INVERSION: 100 to 200 feet in the valleys and 500 feet on the ridges..
OUTLOOK FOR Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers which could produce measurable rainfall. A Haines index of 3. Highs 65 to 75. Increasing relative humidity on the ridges. Minimum relative humidity of 40 to 48 percent.
Extended Forecast: Wednesday a chance of showers along with a localized one tenth of an inch of rainfall possible. Thursday will be dry with a minimum relative humidity of 25 percent. Increasing northwest winds late Friday through Sunday along with no precipitation expected.
