9-23 Fire Weather Forecast
Incident: Condon Mountain Fire Wildfire
Released: 9/23/2012
INCIDENT Weather Forecast
FORECAST NO: 01 NAME OF FIRE: Condon Mountain PREDICTION FOR: SHIFT: Day Update
SHIFT DATE: 09/23/14 SIGNED:
TIME AND DATE: 0700 SUNDAY 09/23/12
Incident Meteorologist David Lipson FORECAST ISSUED: 0800 09/23/12
WEATHER DISCUSSION: A low pressure center will track southeast across the Great Basin today which will swing some clouds to the north across northwest Montana including the fire area today. These clouds will knock the temperatures down a few degrees along with a slight rise in the relative humidity. Another low pressure center following on the first weather system's heals will track east and approach western Montana Monday. Ahead of this second weather system, instability and moisture will increase which will result in some isolated light showers. On Tuesday and Wednesday the second low pressure center will track right across western Montana which will result in a better chance of showers over the fire area with the best chance of any rainfall on Wednesday. There is a 30 percent chance that any one location could see measurable precipitation during this event. A tenth of an inch of rainfall is not out of the realm of possibilities on any portion of the fire during this time frame. On Thursday expect less clouds and no precipitation. There is the potential for significant north northwest winds late Friday into Saturday along with no precipitation and a relative humidity no lower than 25 percent.
TODAY...
WEATHER... Smoke will be around this morning and should dissipate between 1100 and 1200.
TEMPERATURES: 76 at 3500 ft in the valley, 72 at 5000 feet and 69 at 6000 feet.
HUMIDITY: 25 to 27 percent.
20 FT WINDS:
RIDGE TOP WINDS - Northeast 5 to 10 mph until 1300. Then South southeast 10 to 15 mph.
MID SLOPE - Downslope 2 to 4 mph until 0900. Then upslope 4 to 8 mph.
VALLEY - Southeast 3 to 5 mph until 0900. Then northwest 3 to 6 mph increasing to 5 to 10 mph by 1300.
HAINES INDEX: 3 almost a 4.
STABILITY/INVERSION: 200 to 400 feet msl lifting to 10000 feet msl by 1200.
TONIGHT....
WEATHER: Mostly cloudy.
TEMPERATURES: 44 in the valleys and 56 in the thermal belt.
HUMIDITY: 65 to 70 percent in the valleys and 40 percent on the ridges.
20 FT WINDS:
RIDGETOP -East 5 to 10 mph.
MID SLOPE - Downslope 2 to 4 mph.
VALLEY - Southeast 5 to 10 mph.
HAINES INDEX: 3.
STABILITY/INVERSION: 100 to 200 feet in the valleys and 500 feet on the ridges..
OUTLOOK FOR Monday: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. A Haines index of 3. Highs 66 to 73. Minimum relative humidity of 27 to 30 percent.
Extended Forecast: Tuesday and Wednesday a chance of showers. Thursday will be dry with a minimum relative humidity of 25 percent. Increasing north northwest winds late Friday through Saturday along with a minimum relative humidity of 25 percent and no precipitation expected.
